Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 4.021589 4.385505 4.788596 5.272472 5.843433 6.503396 7.335635
2025-01-19 3.420859 3.867898 4.395405 5.076576 5.953178 7.074709 8.676068
2025-01-26 3.184232 3.694125 4.324140 5.184318 6.371759 8.030817 10.696017
2025-02-02 3.059506 3.627773 4.358435 5.407370 6.954745 9.317323 13.639673
2025-02-09 2.931218 3.535988 4.338785 5.540219 7.417426 10.527535 17.016845
2025-02-16 2.763036 3.372487 4.199524 5.474284 7.551999 11.218763 19.766358
2025-02-23 2.626790 3.239390 4.087077 5.428968 7.703748 11.972452 23.155731
2025-03-02 2.502902 3.113220 3.971706 5.362045 7.801683 12.644208 26.891264
2025-03-09 2.395700 3.002702 3.869145 5.301785 7.897712 13.338228 31.423726
2025-03-16 2.311216 2.918805 3.798884 5.284983 8.068969 14.255764 38.024860
2025-03-23 2.261375 2.881368 3.795128 5.377667 8.466922 15.873533 51.074746
2025-03-30 2.171171 2.779415 3.684139 5.272495 8.444051 16.385924 59.723290
2025-04-06 2.081009 2.675023 3.565804 5.148825 8.375313 16.789879 69.752291
2025-04-13 1.983646 2.555895 3.418055 4.961010 8.143770 16.648222 75.379456
2025-04-20 1.954418 2.537710 3.430060 5.064655 8.575698 18.790525 122.433919
2025-04-27 1.948354 2.553903 3.498042 5.279099 9.312127 22.530424 327.240187
2025-05-04 1.925648 2.542903 3.519799 5.406709 9.871112 26.158931 2173.443669
2025-05-11 1.871005 2.479379 3.449063 5.343385 9.922855 27.587104 NaN
2025-05-18 1.823225 2.424765 3.390607 5.299851 10.021835 29.389888 NaN
2025-05-25 1.774947 2.367528 3.324737 5.235542 10.052896 30.904586 NaN
2025-06-01 1.730497 2.314821 3.264217 5.177618 10.093831 32.582585 NaN
2025-06-08 1.695099 2.275373 3.224961 5.161465 10.256687 35.316035 NaN
2025-06-15 1.677548 2.263992 3.234429 5.250556 10.761947 41.475155 NaN